As is typical leading up to new Apple releases, consumers are beginning to think twice before purchasing a new Mac, causing this quarter’s Mac sales to slide as potential purchasers anticipate new models in the coming months.
Both the MacBook Pro and the iMac are due for a refresh, and the rumors so far are making the new models seem pretty appealing – faster Ivy Bridge processors with improved performance, a slim new design for the MacBook Pro, and a slimmer iMac body with an anti-reflective display. It’s easy to see why consumers might be holding off.
Quarterly Mac shipments have declined by 4% for the first quarter of 2012, Unsurprisingly, Mac sales in 2012 are slightly lower than usual, with continued decline expected until new models are released, at which point sales will surge. It’s a pattern seen time and time again.
Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty explained the decline in a recent note to investors (via MacRumors):
Although the US retail market improved in March, Apple shipment growth decelerated as the company faced much tougher Y/Y comparisons due to a notebook refresh this time last year. US retail data suggest Apple shipments fell 4% Y/Y in C1Q12 compared to our estimate of 15% global Mac unit growth. We expect faster international growth to offset some of the deceleration in the US. In fact, the divergence between international and US growth has accelerated from about four points in prior quarters to 15 points in C4Q11. More importantly, we expect demand upside from iPhone and iPad (83% of gross profit) to more than offset any Mac downside (9% of gross profit).
Fortunately, the decline doesn’t appear to be anything to worry about. Similar declines were seen ahead of the iPhone 4S launch (and ahead of most other Apple launches), yet continued sales in other areas, as well as the surge in sales following a new product release, tend to make up the difference rather well. And as Huberty points out, it’s also likely that Apple’s iPhone and iPad sales will also play a large roll in making up for the decrease in Mac sales.
It’s also worth noting that while Mac sales are down 4% year-over-year, PC sales are down between 10-15% year-over-year, and the PC industry doen’t have a post-release boom to look forward to.
