Apple is about to reclaim the top spot among smartphone makers for the first time since 2011, thank to the success of its iPhone 17 lineup, according to Counterpoint Research data (via Bloomberg).
Based on the firm’s data, iPhone shipments are projected to grow 10% in 2025, greatly outpacing Samsung’s 4.6% growth projection. Apple is expected to capture a 19.4% global market share of the overall smartphone market, as it expands 3.3% for the year.
Apple’s iPhone 17 lineup, which debuted in September have proven to be quite popular, both domestically in the US and in China. This has lead to double-digit year-over-year sales growth in both markets, say researchers. Apple has also benefited from a lessening of US-China trade tensions, as well as a depreciating dollar that has boosted purchases in emerging markets.
Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang said the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook was a replacement cycle “inflection point,” as consumers who bought phones during the pandemic boom are now ready to upgrade. 358 million “pre-owned” iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025, meaning there would be a group of upgraders looking to buy.
Wang also expects to see Apple extend its lead with the 2026 launch of its first foldable iPhone and a budget-friendly iPhone 17e. A major iPhone design overhaul is expected for 2027, as Apple celebrates the 20th anniversary of the device’s introduction.