Rumored supply issues may limit availability of the new iPhone at launch, but a new study shows that constraints have actually been good for Apple’s stock price.
Analyst Rob Cihra with Evercore Partners found that over the last three years, AAPL stock has performed 2.2 times better in a quarter after the company noted that iPhone supply was constrained. The stock also performed 1.2 times better in a quarter after management noted supply of the iPad was constrained.
In the June 2010 quarter, when both the iPhone and iPad were noted as constrained by Apple executives, the company’s stock price zoomed 26 percent over the next three months. As a contrast, October 2011 saw no reports of either iPhone or iPad constraints, and the stock saw zero growth over the next three months.
It is speculated by Chira that Apple stock does so well when products are constrained because investors recognize that customers will wait until the Apple products are available instead of buying a competitor’s product.
Cihra forecasts sales of 24 million iPhones in the September quarter, which would be a 39 percent year-over-year jump.
Evercore Partners has increased its price target for AAPL stock to $800, up from its previous prediction of $750. It is maintaining its “overweight” rating for the company.