Analysts Can’t Agree on Q4 Apple Watch Sales Estimates

Analysts Can’t Agree on Q4 Apple Watch Sales Estimates

Although Apple’s CEO Tim Cook has stated that he company is “not announcing the numbers” for Apple Watch sales, that doesn’t stop industry analysts from making scientific wild ass guesses (SWAG) for sales of the wearable device in Q4 2015. And those “guesstimates” are all over the map!

Analysts Can't Agree on Q4 Apple Watch Sales Estimates


While Fortune reports the average estimate of 3.95M sales, the range is so wide as to be meaningless: from a low of 2.5M to a high of 6M.

Apple CEO Tim Cook said on Monday that Apple would not announce sales numbers for the Watch:

“This is competitive information. I don’t want to help the competition. We shipped a lot [of Apple Watches] the first quarter, then last quarter we shipped even more. I can predict this quarter we will ship even more.”

While we’re unlikely to ever learn the actual sales numbers for Apple Watch sales, we do know that sales of Swiss watch exports suffered their largest quarterly drop since 2009 during the third quarter, indicating that the Apple Watch is eating into their sales.

The analyst’s guesstimates are shown in the grid above – pros in blue, amateurs in green. All calculated using the previously mentioned SWAG method.