His analysis indicates that while iTunes music sales have leveled off, demand for apps is continuing to rise at a steady base. By analyzing the data, he concludes that if both trends continue at their current pace, Apps will overtake music sales by 2015 – that’s within just 3 years. Check out his projections-based graph below:
Dediu notes that, Although iTunes has sold apps for just three years, the average iTunes account has downloaded 62 apps versus 67 songs, which he considers to be pretty remarkable in such a short period of time.
While Dediu’s projections certainly seem interesting, I personally believe the app market will accelerate much faster than he expects, especially if Apple continues the trend they’re beginning with Lion of making it available only through the Mac App Store. Additionally, as both the Mac and iOS user base increase, which they are both doing in a significant way, more and more developers will start writing new apps or making more apps available for the App Store markets.
What are your thoughts? Personally, I know for a fact that I buy more apps than music – is the same true for you? Sound off in the comments!