According to SeekingAlpha’s Andrew Zaky, the next iPhone might be due as early as June or July, maintaining current launch trends. He cites several reasons, including launch timing, and Apple’s legendary ability to produce hype.
Zaky boldly states, “Peter Oppenheimer might as well have just said, ‘Despite what you might hear on Wall Street, we expect the iPhone 5 to be released in late June or early July as planned,” with one of his reasons being:
Apple was embarrassed last year with the iPhone 4 missing prototype debacle. Don’t be surprised if Steve Jobs significantly increased efforts to return Apple to the days of secrecy. Remember the days when Steve Jobs would end his presentation with “One more thing…” and release a product that the public was genuinely surprised to see? This rumor mill of a delayed iPhone all began because Apple didn’t make mention of the iPhone in its invitation to the World Wide Developer’s Conference set for this June. It seems like a perfect stage for Steve Job to once again surprise us all with “one more thing…”
Regardless of “one more thing” scenarios, Last year’s Gizmodo drama regarding the iPhone 4 would lead me to think that Apple will want to be a lot more careful about what information they allow to reach the Blogosphere, although iPhone 4S/iPhone 4 would make an incredible “one more thing” in a WWDC keynote, admittedly!
Zaky further writes, “Most of the expenses associated with the actual launch of the iPhone take place in Apple’s fiscal Q4. But it’s been the general pattern that Apple increases its SG&A ahead of an iPhone launch that usually kicks-off in the closing days of fiscal Q3. Expect to see the new iPhone in customer hands this July.”
Zaky continues at some length in continuing his argument, citing investor relations, marketing, financial (economic) and a plethora of other reasons for why he thinks a June/July release will surely be the case, and if you are really interested in reading a fascinating piece of research-based opinion, it is definitely worth a read.
While I’m not quite sure what to make of Zaky’s report, I’d certainly be excited about the prospect of a June or July release – My contract is officially ready for renewal even now, a lot of other people are in this position, and I’m certain I’m not the only one that would be gratified immensely to get the device sooner rather than later.
Still though, if there is a good reason for the delay, such as a manufacturing situation, availability of the very best components, Apple needing time to build up sufficient stock…whatever the case may be, I’d rather the next iPhone (and the surrounding launch) be the best they can possibly be, even if it means waiting longer.