Cody Willard, a MarketWatch blogger, says that after reading a lot of analyst notes, he’s convinced that as Apple continues to innovate and expand, they’ll reach the point of having one billion iPads in circulation.
Despite the fact that iOS’s ecosystem lead may diminish over time, we believe that iPad’s market evolution and competitive positioning is more likely to resemble the iPod than the iPhone, and we have increased conviction that iPad will have sustained dominant market share (50%+) going forward.Yeah, we’re talking about 3 out of every four MP3 players were iPods at one point. If (and yes, it’s an “if”, unless you’re a permabear or luddite, it’s not a “BIG if”, but just an “if”) tablet sales go from 20 million in 2010 to 100 million 2012 to 250 million in 2015, we’re talking about Apple selling more than 200 million tablets in five years from this year.
Clearly, Willard is excited about the prospect of the iPad in its current and future iterations, and grants it vast potential in the market, especially considering the delightful marketing position that in places the App Store into, which is a hugh profit generator for Apple. But to further the point, he goes on to say:
Alas, the iPad, iPhone and Mac marketshare success stories are just part of the story with Apple — it’s really all about that eco-system and the expanding margins and new business lines it will generate.
So, it appears that, in all, there’s little question about Apple having one billion iPads in circulation at some point. The lingering question is when. Your thoughts? Sound off in the comments.