Following reports that Apple has begun blocking out retail employee vacations for the first two weeks of October, Apple’s plans for the release of iOS 5 and the iPhone 4S/iPhone 5 are seemingly becoming significantly more clear. We’ve projected likely release dates for both based on the latest rumors and speculation.
iOS 5
Apple appears to be blocking employee vacation time in two chunks, October 9th-12th and October 14th-15th. Previous reports have suggested that AppleCare call centers have been told to prepare for higher than normal call volumes beginning on Friday, October 9th, the same day as the vacation block is rumored to begin.
Another related report suggests that Twitter has also scheduled a major developer event in London on October 10th to discuss the integration of Twitter in iOS 5. It would really only make sense to hold such an event if iOS 5 had already been publicly released, otherwise they would not be able to openly discuss any details about iOS 5 or its integration with Twitter.
Based on a summary of the most current rumors surrounding iOS 5, I believe that Apple will make iOS 5 available to owners of existing iOS devices on Monday, October 10th, 2011.
iPhone 4S/iPhone 5
The second vacation block from October 14th-15th is likely to reflect Apple’s release of next-generation iPhone hardware. Apple has traditionally released new versions of iOS a few days before releasing a next-generation iPhone, releasing iOS 3.0 (then called iPhone Software 3.0) on June 17, 2009 followed by a June 19th release of the iPhone 3GS, and releasing iOS 4.0 on June 21st ahead of a June 24th release of the iPhone 4.
October 14th falls on a Friday, and Apple has released new hardware on Fridays in previous years. The iPhone 3G, for instance, was released on Friday, June 11, 2008, and the iPhone 3GS was released on Friday, June 19, 2009.
Considering past evidence and combining it with a summary of recent iPhone 4S/iPhone 5 rumors, I predict that Apple will launch a next-gen iPhone, whether it’s the iPhone 4S, iPhone 5 or both, on October 14th.
Apple is expected to hold a media event on October 4th, at which they are expected to unveil their next-gen iPhone hardware, giving Apple around 10 days to accept pre-orders and build retail stock ahead of an official retail launch of the next-gen iPhone.
