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Dvorak: ‘I wouldn’t be betting against Apple anytime soon.’

Dvorak: ‘I wouldn’t be betting against Apple anytime soon.’

At what point should investors short Apple shares? Not now, says well known industry pundit and all around crabby guy John C. Dvorak.

Dvorak writes:

People love to speculate on the future of Apple Inc. I am no exception.

I’m often asked at what point should someone short high-flying Apple  shares? My response is simple: When the company starts closing stores and pulling back from retail, then the tide has turned.

He continues: “While we all know that Steve Jobs was the motivating force behind Apple, we should also note that the company has gotten too big to be totally dominated by his personality, as was the case in the early years.”

Dvorak says even though Jobs nixed a lot of dubious ideas over the years, it is now clear that many times he himself was overridden.

“The sheer number of moxie consultants involved in various initiatives such as Apple’s retail effort is staggering,” Dvorak says, “The proof will be in the pudding with the opening of the next-generation store in Palo Alto, Calif.”

How much more can Apple grow the retail business?

Dvorak writes, “I see no reason why Apple cannot have 1,000 stores that would all be successful. Staples Inc., the office-supply chain, has 2,000-plus stores.”

Then he goes a little “out there”, as he is prone to do: “Apple seems so adept at retail that there is no reason to doubt that it could go out and buy a company like Staples to expand in the sector. Why not?  Apple does have more than $75 billion in the bank, and Staples is worth about $10 billion. Do the math on any retail chain. Opportunity lurks.”

Dvorak finishes by saying that as far as Apple is concerned, the sky’s the limit, and he won’t be betting against them any time soon.

  1. Anonymous says:

    Buying Staples ranks as one of Dvorak’s worst ideas ever — and that is saying alot. This is from the guy who proclaimed Apple should abandon and shut down the iPhone. I guess it takes a certain kind of genius to be so totally wrong so much of the time. In fact, with Dvorak I just take for granted that whatever he says won’t happen. In fact, his current optimism for Apple has me worried.

    Staples is a big steaming turd in retail, offering consumers all the excitement of discount paper supplies, pencils and pens. What possibly would Apple do with Staples? They have almost nothing in common, from what they sell to their retail design. Dvorak has worn out his welcome in technology, and the time to ignore his ideas is long past.

  2. I agree that this article is a bad sign that Apple may finally be on its way to boredom and weak execution like Microsoft, Sony and many other successful consumer product companies.  Dvorak has literally never been right about Apple.  I wonder if Dvorak is self aware enough to write this from a tongue in cheek perspective?  He makes money either way if we read him.  I have never sensed that in him, but who knows?  I am reading Steve Jobs biography and I have to say they will need someone with the fire to drive, and the common sense to ask is this product simple enough?  

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