This will no doubt not appeal one bit to Android fans, but an article published on Forbes suggests that Android has reached is peak and that the only way it can go is down. Analyst Tavis McCourt estimates that Apple dominated the smartphone market last quarter, with 59% market share, while non-iPhone smartphones’ sales were dropping by a whopping 38% a year. The iPhone sell-through on the other hand grew by 55%.
Forbes’s Savitz brings up a good point:
Could it be the case that Google’s share of the smartphone market has peaked? That the phone-buying public simply is more inclined to choose Apple’s vertically integrated approach over the cacophony of the Android market? Could it, in fact, be the case that, while Google and Microsoft can innovate and find niche markets for their mobile OS offerings, that Apple has basically won the game, at least for the U.S. market?
I for one think the writing’s on the wall right now, and it was from the very start. Apple was the pioneer of the modern mobile experience in 2007. They were the first to really do it “all the way” with multi-touch and the whole shebang. Google just followed suit, and as a result they faced an uphill struggle from the beginning, especially as they didn’t control the mostly poor hardware that came bundled with their OS.
In an industry like this one, you really have to be the first on board. If you are, the developers will make apps for you before anyone else, and if you control the hardware like Apple it means domination. If Android had come first, it would’ve been interesting. I still think because of the fragmentation Apple would have prevailed, but that just shows the importance of controlling everything.
Android’s demise will probably take a few years at least, however it is quite apparent already and will probably get worse in the times ahead. We could end up having an Apple monopoly, which would only serve to increase the overall smartphone quality on the market.