It’s better to take your money from one pocket and put it in another than it is to lose it completely. That would seem to be Apple’s motto, as the new iPad mini HAS to be cannibalizing sales of the full-size iPad right? Not as much as you’d think.
Prior to its launch, analysts and observers estimated the iPad mini’s cannibalization rate of iPad sales at between 10 percent and 20 percent, with some hazarding guesses of as high as 50 percent. And while those at the lower end of the spectrum might appear reasonable, consumer sentiment… …suggests they’re more than a bit high.
The survey, from Cowen And Co., shows that Apple’s “eating of their own” may turn out to be minor, if not downright miniscule.
Cown surveyed 1,225 adults in the United States, and 12% of respondents said they planned to purchase an iPad mini in the next 18 months. Of that group, 52% said they had never owned a tablet before. Going deeper, only 16.6% said they intended it as a replacement for another device, and of those, 29% said the device being replaced was an iPad. (13% intended to replace a Kindle Fire, and a whopping 42% intended to give the heave-ho to a Windows PC.)
“The iPad mini creates more demand than it cannibalizes,” Cowen analyst Matthew Hoffman explained. “Since 52 percent of the mini intenders in our sample did not own a tablet of any type, we see it successfully positioned as likely to penetrate new entry-tier segments. … Mini will no doubt take some iPad “4″ sales, but its low price also looks like an important tool to capture new consumers’ attention.”
These number show that few consumers are buying an iPad mini with the intention of using it as an iPad replacement. For many buyers, in fact, the mini wil be their first tablet. It looks like Apple isn’t drawing those who would have purchased a larger model iPad, but is indeed tapping into a fresh market of folks looking for a smaller version of the popular device.
