Supply chain checks show that demand for the iPhone 5 is remaining strong, but the iPad mini may be cannibalizing sales from the full-sized iPad.
In his talks with Apple’s supply chain, Shaw Wu of Sterne Agee found that lead times of the iPhone 5 are now at the same day. That’s an improvement from recent turnaround times of two to four days.
As for the iPad, Wu has reduced his projected sales from 25 million to 23.5 million. His new forecast is a bit below market consensus of between 23 million and 24 million.
Wu is increasing his iPhone forecast to 47.5 million for the quarter, up from his previous prediction of 47.3 million. Those numbers are higher than the market consensus of between 45 million and 46 million iPhones.
Wu’s reduction in expectations for the iPad lineups are because of continued constraints on iPad mini supply, and lower build orders for the 4th-generation iPad. He says full-size iPad sales may come in lower than predicted, because of some cannibalization from the smaller and cheaper mini.
Wu does say that iPad mini demand remains strong, which suggests consumers may be shifting to the smaller form factor. iPad mini shipments are limited only by supply constraints.