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KGI’s Kuo Estimates: 54M iPhones, Apple Watch 4M Sold in Q3

KGI’s Kuo Estimates: 54M iPhones, Apple Watch 4M Sold in Q3

Apple will reveal its official numbers for the third fiscal quarter of 2015 on Tuesday, and ahead of the announcement comes a report from well-connected KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. Kuo predicts strong numbers, with the exception of disappointing numbers for the iPad and Apple Watch.

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In a research note obtained by AppleInsider on Saturday, Kuo estimates Apple shipped 54.2 million iPhones, 8.8 million iPads, 5.4 million Macs and 3.9 million Apple Watches over the three-month period ending in June. Compared to the same time last year, iPhone and Mac shipments are up 54 percent and 21.6 percent, respectively, though iPad faced yet another decline to the tune of 33.5 percent.

Kuo says “robust” replacement demand for the iPhone in China contributed to strong sales in the region. Looking ahead to the fourth fiscal quarter, Kuo says potential Force Touch manufacturing issues with the as yet unannounced “iPhone 6s” could drop shipments down to 40.1 million units. Apple normally sees a nice jump in iPhone sales in September, due to the device’s yearly refresh cycle.

Apple Watch sales may prove disappointing, as Kuo describes consumer response to the wearable as “tepid.” He does predict shipments to rise 41.1% sequentially next quarter to 5.5 million units, due to availability in new markets. He sees Apple Watch shipments overall reaching 15 million units in 2015. He speculates that Apple may attempt to jumpstart sales of the wearable by offering a new aluminum Apple Watch Sport model with yellow or rose gold coating.

iPad sales continue to disappoint, Kuo says, although future sales numbers for the tablet could be aided by a new iPad mini model with an upgraded processor, and a slimmer and lighter chassis. Kuo made no mention of a new iPad Air, (some rumors says Apple will not upgrade the Air this year), or the much-rumored 12.9-inch “iPad Pro.”

Kuo sees Mac sales continuing to grow on the back of the new MacBook models Apple recently released. He sees sales being aided by new iMac models with upgraded CPUs, which he believes will hit shelves sometime in the fiscal quarter four 2015 – quarter one 2016 timeframe.

Apple will announce third fiscal quarter 2015 earnings on Tuesday, June 21. The company will also livestream the earnings conference call on Tuesday afternoon. MacTrast will cover the release and the call, so stay tuned.