From the good news/bad news news file: KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has increased his 2016 sales estimates for the iPhone 7 lineup, but still doesn’t expect sales to surpass that of the iPhone 6s lineup’s 2015 numbers.
According to research provided to AppleInsider by KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the research firm has escalated its sales estimates from 65 million to between 70 million and 75 million, mostly because of the recall of the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 and the dual-camera feature in the iPhone 7 Plus.
Kuo says he believes “artificial scarcity” has led to reports of carrier sell-outs and strong consumer demand of the device, saying both factors are “not entirely due to market demand.” He says carrier promotions are inflating sales numbers, while a larger amount of launch countries has spread out the available stock, leading to depleted inventories.
Samsung’s recall of the Galaxy Note 7’s, spurred by a number of buyers’ experiences with the devices exploding due to faulty batteries, has pushed users to look for another brand of large-screen smartphone. Kuo also noted that the iPhone 7 Plus’s dual-camera feature has proved quite popular, aiding early shipments of the device.
Kuo also says low yields on the popular Jet Black iPhone 7 casings, which has a yield that is running around 60-70%, is another reason for the scarcity of the devices. KGI suggests Apple investors cash in and take their profits in the current near-term stock highs.
Jet Black has accounted for roughly 30% to 35% of pre-orders worldwide, says Kuo, while in China it accounted for 45% to 50% of pre-orders. The 128GB model has proven to be the most popular choice.
As for iPhone 7 vs. iPhone 7 Plus sales, Kuo indicates pre-order numbers of the iPhone 7 Plus and iPhone 7 were roughly equal, likely due to the issues with the Galaxy Note 7.
The numbers shouldn’t come as a big surprise to observers – although there will likely still be much wailing and gnashing of teeth in the media – as Apple itself has forecasted lower iPhone sales numbers than last year, as well as indicating there will be an earnings slowdown continuing this quarter.
This guy is only good at predicting hardware and when the sales numbers are concerned he is no better than the other bizarros.
I believe he has some inside information on the hardware but whereas the rest is concerned it’s guesswork.