KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo claims demand of the iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus has peaked, just two short months after they debuted to the public. Kuo says Apple’s overseas suppliers will revise their iPhone shipments down by 5-15% in November and December, due to lower than expected demand for the devices.
As the 4.7-inch iPhone 7, which accounts for a higher share of iPhone shipments, is in stock in the main global markets, we believe overall iPhone shipments have peaked. We think iPhone shipment forecasts will be revised down due to: (1) lower-than-expected demand due to a lack of spec surprises in the 4.7-inch iPhone 7; and (2) shorter times for delivering online orders of 5.5-inch iPhone 7 Plus, which implies slowing demand. We note that the out-of-stock phenomenon also results from fixed capacity, and is not only due to robust demand.
Kuo’s research note, originally discovered by MacRumors, says the usual out-of-stock madness that typically follows the launch of a new iPhone, results from fixed capacity, and not only from huge demand. He still sees a possible year-over-year decline in shipments of the iPhone in the first quarter of 2017, caused by both lower than expected demand, and the fierce competition the devices face in the Chinese market.