Apple is betting on the 6.1-inch iPhone 12 outselling the 5.4-inch iPhone 12 mini, as well as the more expensive 6.1-inch iPhone 12 Pro and 6.7-inch iPhone 12 Pro Max, says an investor’s note by noted Apple industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.
Kuo says Apple’s estimated shipment allocations for the new iPhone models are as follows:
- 5.4-inch iPhone 12 Mini – 20 to 25%
- 6.1-inch iPhone 12 – 40 to 45%
- 6.1-inch iPhone 12 Pro – 15 to 20%
- 6.7-inch iPhone 12 Pro Max – 15 to 20%
While there is definitely demand for a smaller iPhone, smaller screened devices are not popular globally. The 5.4-inch “mini” will likely sell for $6t99, but Kuo believes that even the lower price point will not lead to its outselling the larger handset.
While the iPhone 12 Pro and iPhone 12 Pro Max will have better specs and are higher-tier models, they are more expensive, which leads Kuo to believe that the iPhone 12 “will have the highest shipment allocation” of the iPhone 12 models.
Kuo sees price point as being critical to the iPhone 12’s success. Recent rumors indicate the iPhone 12 mini will start at $699, the iPhone 12 will start at $799, the iPhone 12 Pro will start at $999, and the iPhone 12 Pro Max will start at $1,099.
Kuo expects Apple to ship 80 to 85 million units of all iPhone 12 models in the fourth quarter of 2020, more than the 75 million units of all iPhone 11 models it shipped in the fourth quarter of 2019.
Apple’s tight supply and late launch timeline could lead to the company missing some peak season demand in Europe and the United States, and we should see some models sell out quickly.